Trained
strategic reflexes is a decision-making tool for
competitive situations where information about the future is limited. This is
often because there is so much information from so many sources that finding the
critical information that you need is like finding a needle in a haystack. The value
of classical strategy is that its methods are designed to work where we know we
can never have all the key information we need. It methods are like a magnet
pulling a few of the critical pieces of information from that haystack.
In a controlled environment, inside an organization, good information, especially about the plans of others, ensures
good information about the future. However, in the larger, competitive environment, you cannot predict the future.
In a marketplace, for example, customers are free to decide what they do. This
means that while you may be able to predict that you can make a cake, you cannot
predict that anyone in the marketplace will buy it.
In competitive environments, we operate with incomplete information
as a matter of course. Competitive environments are filled with misinformation.
They are filled with outdated information. The limitations of information affect buyers as well as sellers. Our only
guide to the future in competitive environments is the past. And while there is
some continuity with the past, new alternatives
are constantly being offered.
People can make decisions based only upon their subjective
impressions. The less information we have, the more our subjective
impressions differ from the physical reality. In chess, opposing players have
access to all relevant information except each other's plans. In real-life
competition, some people have information that others don't have. No matter
how good our inside information, by definition we are outsiders to most of the
world.
The
methods of Sun Tzu first gather as much relevant information as
quickly as possible. They then quickly filter that information
so that actions can be taken safely, but
each move is a probe designed
to test our information and gain additional information that we could not have
gotten without action.
The final step is recognizing both our successes and
failures.
For a complete description of the process of advancing
positions in competitive business environments, we suggest you read our book,
9 Formulas for Business Success: The Science of Strategy.